How can Scottsdale's pending home sales fall 40% in a single month while the year's running total of contracts goes up?
That is what the latest Phoenix REALTORS® report shows. In the September 2026 Local Market Update for Scottsdale, which draws on ARMLS data current as of October 3, 2026, single-family pending sales are listed at 192 for the month, against 321 in September 2025. That's a 40.2% decline. The same table shows year-to-date pending sales through September of 3,303, up 6.3% from 3,107 a year earlier. Both figures can't describe the same demand. The year-to-date total is the more reliable one, and the reason starts with how a signed contract becomes a "pending" listing.
A Signed Contract Isn't Counted Right Away
When a buyer and seller in the Phoenix area sign a purchase agreement, the MLS listing doesn't change on its own. Under Section 10.7 of the ARMLS Rules and Regulations, last updated May 28, 2026, the listing agent has three days after every party signs to change the status to Sale Pending. That becomes four days when a legal holiday falls next to a weekend.
Section 10.8 allows a second route. The listing can go to Under Contract–Backups, or UCB, if the seller asks in writing to keep marketing the home for backup offers. It can go to Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale, or CCBS, if the purchase depends on the buyer selling another property. ARMLS treats UCB and CCBS as statuses for homes that are under contract and still being marketed. Pending is defined as an accepted offer waiting for escrow to close.
The Phoenix REALTORS® reports define pending sales as "a count of the properties on which offers have been accepted in a given month." The published methodology doesn't say whether listings in UCB or CCBS count toward that number, or how contracts entered late get assigned to a month. So a contract signed in the last days of September can reach the MLS in October, and a contract held in a backup status may not show up as pending for a while. Neither has been confirmed as the cause of the pattern below. The pattern itself is plain arithmetic.
The Arithmetic That Doesn't Add Up
If each month's pending count were final when published, the year-to-date total would rise by exactly that count from one report to the next. That's true for 2025 in Scottsdale. The 2025 total went from 2,469 through July to 2,786 through August, an increase of 317, which matches August 2025's monthly figure of 317. It went from 2,786 to 3,107 through September, an increase of 321, which matches September 2025's 321.
The 2026 numbers don't line up that way.
| Scottsdale single-family, 2026 | Monthly pending as first reported | Rise in year-to-date total | Contracts added to earlier months |
|---|---|---|---|
| August report, current as of Sept. 3 | 201 | 321, from 2,672 to 2,993 | 120 |
| September report, current as of Oct. 3 | 192 | 310, from 2,993 to 3,303 | 118 |
Each month, roughly 120 Scottsdale single-family contracts that weren't in the earlier report appear in the year-to-date total. The newest month is the incomplete one, and it gets compared against a September 2025 figure that has had a full year to settle. A comparison set up that way will show a decline even if demand hasn't changed.
The rise in the year-to-date total isn't a clean final count for any one month. It's still a useful rough check. The September 2026 rise of 310 is about 3% below the 321 contracts recorded for September 2025. That's a much smaller gap than the 40% headline.
The same thing shows up across Maricopa County. The county's September 2026 update reports 2,241 single-family pending sales for the month, down 39.3% from 3,694. Meanwhile, the year-to-date total rose by 3,298, from 33,502 through August to 36,800 through September. County townhome and condo pendings follow the same pattern. The year-to-date total rose by 565 while the monthly figure was 368. When Phoenix Agent Magazine covered the September data on October 8, it said pending sales "plummeted 39.3%, though, indicating slower sales in the coming months." The year-to-date figures point to a much milder slowdown than that.
The Numbers That Don't Get Rewritten
Closed sales are recorded when escrow closes. That makes them a firmer record than a contract count reported within days of month-end. In September 2026, 327 single-family homes closed in Scottsdale, up 2.2% from 320 in September 2025. Through the first nine months of 2026, closings totaled 3,382, up 10.6%.
Supply and pricing were steady through September as well:
- Months of supply: 3.7 in September 2026, down from 4.1 a year earlier.
- Inventory: 1,334 single-family homes for sale, compared with 1,346 in September 2025.
- Days on market until sale: 80 in September 2026, down from 90.
- Percent of list price received: 97.2%, up from 96.6%.
- Median sales price: $1,200,000, up 4.3%. The average rose 7.1% to $1,646,506.
If buyers had pulled back by 40%, homes would sit longer and sellers would accept less. In September 2026, Scottsdale single-family homes sold faster than a year earlier and closer to their asking prices, and months of supply went down. That's the picture the year-to-date pending total suggests, and the opposite of the monthly headline.
Maricopa County moved the other way over the same period. Single-family months of supply rose to 3.9 from 3.7, inventory grew 6.4% to 15,422, and the median sales price slipped 2% to $500,000 in September 2026. For a buyer comparing Scottsdale with other parts of the Valley, this matters. The county as a whole is loosening a little, and Scottsdale's single-family market is not.
Scottsdale Condos Show a Real Slowdown
Scottsdale's townhomes and condos look different in the same report. In this segment the softness also shows up in the numbers that don't get revised.
| Scottsdale, September 2026 vs. September 2025 | Single-family | Townhouse/condo |
|---|---|---|
| Months supply | 3.7, down from 4.1 | 5.7, up from 5.1 |
| Inventory | 1,334, down 0.9% | 1,000, up 8.1% |
| Days on market until sale | 80, down from 90 | 109, up from 96 |
| Median sales price | $1,200,000, up 4.3% | $485,000, down 3.5% |
| Year-to-date closed sales | 3,382, up 10.6% | 1,664, down 3.9% |
| Year-to-date pending sales | 3,303, up 6.3% | 1,571, down 7.1% |
Condo year-to-date contracts and closings are both lower than in 2025, and condo supply grew while single-family supply shrank. Within the same city in the same month, one segment is getting tighter and the other is building inventory.
This also explains why different Scottsdale reports show different medians. The Scottsdale REALTORS® September 2026 market report, built on RPR data, gives a median sold price of $950,000 and 4.57 months of inventory. It combines single-family homes with condos, townhouses and apartments. That's a valid number for a different mix of homes. A buyer shopping for a detached home should use the single-family figures. A buyer shopping for a condo should use the condo figures. A blended median describes neither.
Rates at a Three-Year High
The most recent rate data might suggest buyers are pulling back. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the average contract rate on a conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rose 19 basis points to 7.49% in the week ending October 2, 2026. Phoenix Agent Magazine described that as a three-year high. Freddie Mac measures rates differently, and its weekly survey published October 1 put the 30-year fixed average at 7.28%.
Sammy Glassman, president of Phoenix REALTORS®, described the effect on timing in the association's September release:
"September often marks the start of increased fall activity, but this year people are navigating more affordability pressure and rate uncertainty. Buyers and sellers are still active, but when rates keep moving, it can cause people to pause before making a major financial decision."
He also pointed to seller concessions as "a strategic tool for both sides," which buyers can use to buy down a rate or reduce upfront costs. One limit of these reports is relevant here. The price figures in the Local Market Updates don't account for sale concessions or down payment assistance. A $1,200,000 median is the contract price, so it won't reflect any rate buydown a seller paid at closing.
Pauses like the one Glassman describes would show up first in condos and in the lower-priced parts of the county, and that's where the inventory figures were rising in September. Scottsdale's single-family segment posted its rising median and average and its shorter market times during the same weeks that rates climbed.
Questions Buyers Raise About These Reports
Will September's pending number go up later?
The September 2026 report doesn't say, and the published methodology doesn't explain revisions. In both the August and September reports, though, the year-to-date total grew by about 120 more contracts than the month's own figure. That suggests earlier months are being filled in after first publication.
What do UCB and CCBS mean on a Scottsdale listing?
Both mean the seller has accepted a contract. UCB means the seller asked in writing to keep marketing the home for backup offers. CCBS means the buyer's purchase depends on selling another property. Agents choose either status within the same deadline that applies to Pending, which is three days, or four when a legal holiday falls next to a weekend.
Which single number tracks the Scottsdale market best month to month?
None tells the whole story by itself. Months of supply, days on market and percent of list price received, read separately for single-family homes and condos, are less affected by reporting lag than a pending count published three days after the month ends.
Understanding how a monthly report is put together matters most when you're about to make an offer or set a list price this fall. If you'd like help reading the single-family or condo figures for a specific Scottsdale street or community, Jaime Fernandez can go through the current numbers with you and prepare a valuation from closed sales, not first-draft contract counts. Request Your Free Home Valuation to get started.
This article is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Consult a qualified professional about your situation.
